Nigerian crude oil exports to India surge while Dangote refinery increasingly relies on U.S. imports, raising industry concerns over local sourcing

Nigerian crude oil is once again making waves on the global stage, but not in the way many expected.

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While India ramps up its purchase of Nigerian oil, Africa’s largest refinery — Nigeria’s own $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery — is increasingly importing crude from the United States.

Industry experts are calling it a paradox that underscores the misalignments in domestic oil policy and global trade dynamics.

Indian refiners, pressured by the U.S. to reduce reliance on Russian oil, have turned to Nigeria.

Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum recently bought two million barrels of Nigerian crude for delivery in September and October, including Agbami and other light sweet grades.

At the same time, Dangote Refinery imported around 10 million barrels in July — with about 60% sourced from the U.S. and only 40% from Nigerian producers.

According to data from Kpler, domestic grades such as Amenam, Bonny Light, and Escravos made up the minority of the refinery’s feedstock.

The refinery, operating at 85% of its 650,000 bpd capacity, cited challenges in securing local supply despite the government’s Domestic Crude Supply Obligations.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has been more competitively priced in recent months, giving it an edge in Dangote’s commercial calculations.

“WTI has now overtaken Nigerian supply for the first time,” Kpler reported. The firm attributed this to pricing dynamics, logistical ease, and refining suitability.

While Dangote’s barrels increasingly sail from U.S. ports, Nigeria’s exports to India are booming.

This demand surge is seen as both a market opportunity and a wake-up call for Nigeria’s domestic refining agenda.

Local refiners, including Dangote, have repeatedly warned of under-supply, even as the country’s crude and condensate output stabilizes at around 1.75 million bpd — the highest in over five years.

Yet the gap between production and domestic refining remains.

For instance, Nigerian crude production from the Jones Creek field doubled exports to the Ugo Ocha terminal recently, but those barrels were shipped to Canada and re-exported to the U.S.

Dangote refinery is already reshaping Nigeria’s refined product landscape. It has exported over 1 million tonnes of PMS since June, according to Aliko Dangote.

With expansion plans targeting 700,000 bpd, gasoline yield could reach 322,000 bpd — transforming Nigeria into a net exporter.

Still, analysts are cautious. Kpler warns that running at full capacity remains “highly optimistic,” citing potential for mechanical issues and maintenance delays.

Its RFCC unit, responsible for high-value fuel production, has been dealing with equipment glitches since January.

In response, the refinery is importing naphtha (6,000 bpd) to support gasoline production — another signal of internal hurdles.

While the government pushes for more local refining, including through new infrastructure like the Otakikpo terminal, the industry must reconcile pricing, supply logistics, and operational consistency to make full domestic utilisation viable.

For now, Nigerian crude oil appears more attractive to international refiners than to its own mega-refinery.

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Whether that balance will shift depends on regulatory clarity, improved local supply chains, and sustained refinery performance.