Economy

Nigeria Economy Projection Faces Harsh Reality, Says Afrinvest

Published

1 year ago

August 19, 2025

Nigeria economy projection to $1tn by 2030 faces hurdles as Afrinvest cites inflation, oil output, and power sector woes

The Nigeria economy projection of reaching $1 trillion by 2030, declared by President Bola Tinubu at the recent BRICS summit in Brazil, is now under scrutiny as Afrinvest casts doubt on its feasibility.

Also read: World Bank: Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.6% in 2025 despite global trade tensions

Tinubu had expressed optimism that the economy would quadruple from its current $251 billion size to $1 trillion, banking on reforms and GDP rebasing. He further projected real GDP growth of 7 percent by 2027.

However, Afrinvest argues that the path to such ambitious targets is obstructed by inflation, sluggish oil production, and persistent power sector challenges.

Despite a rebased GDP figure of N372.8tn in 2024 and revenue mobilisation gains, the firm said the fundamentals remain weak.

Nigeria’s GDP in dollar terms actually shrank to $251 billion in 2024 due to currency depreciation, nearly 50 percent lower than pre-reform levels.

Real growth at 3.8 percent last year was the second highest since 2014 but still far below the trajectory required for Tinubu’s projection.

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank are equally conservative, forecasting growth between 3.4 and 3.6 percent in 2025, only inching up to 3.8 percent by 2027.

Afrinvest acknowledged reforms such as subsidy removal, FX liberalisation, and improved fiscal revenues. Yet it warned that inflation is eroding household incomes, power sector inefficiencies persist, and oil theft continues to cripple production.

For Nigeria to realistically meet Tinubu’s $1tn vision, Afrinvest estimates nominal GDP would need to exceed $800 billion by 2026, implying 40 percent yearly growth or the naira must strengthen dramatically to N500 / $ from 2027 onward.

Also read: Professor Barth Nnaji to deliver 2025 bullion lecture on Nigeria’s $1-Trillion economy vision

The advisory firm urged government to step up reforms in oil, power, taxation, FX stability, and food security. Only then, it stressed, can the Nigeria economy projection of $1 trillion move from aspiration to reality.

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Economy

NRS Assures Taxpayers VAT Remains at 7.5% Amid Tax Reform Concerns

Published

2 days ago

October 27, 2026

Peculiar Adirika

NRS VAT rate remains 7.5%, the agency says, while addressing concerns over bank deductions, loans and the implementation of Nigeria’s tax reforms

The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has assured taxpayers that Nigeria’s standard Value Added Tax (VAT) rate remains 7.5 per cent, while addressing concerns over the implementation of the country’s new tax reforms.

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The assurance was given by the Tax Administrator responsible for Kano, Jigawa and Katsina states, Samaila Abdullahi, during an NRS stakeholders’ engagement and tax reform sensitisation programme in Kano.

Abdullahi said concerns raised by individuals, traders, business owners and other stakeholders about the new tax laws were understandable, particularly questions relating to bank transactions, loans, family transfers, business income and the potential impact on small businesses.

He urged taxpayers to understand the reforms through the provisions of the law rather than rely on assumptions or misinformation.

According to him, the tax laws do not automatically authorise deductions from personal bank accounts.

He stressed that tax collection and recovery must follow the applicable legal provisions and procedures.

Abdullahi also clarified that money received as a loan should not automatically be classified as business income or profit, explaining that proper documentation is essential to establish the nature of a transaction.

“For instance, when a trader receives a loan of N500,000, the amount should not automatically be treated as N500,000 in sales or profit, provided the transaction is properly documented,” he said.

The NRS official’s comments were aimed at addressing public concerns about how the new tax framework would affect personal finances and business transactions.

He emphasised the importance of distinguishing between taxable business receipts and other funds, such as documented loans, when determining a taxpayer’s obligations.

The clarification comes amid heightened public interest in Nigeria’s tax reforms and questions about their implications for individuals, traders and small businesses.