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INEC Chair: Will Politics Override Equity in 2027?

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INEC Chair

Will Tinubu’s appointment of the next INEC chairman prioritise fairness or political gain ahead of Nigeria’s pivotal 2027 elections?

By Bola Bolawole

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As Nigeria moves steadily towards the 2027 general elections, fresh debates have erupted over the anticipated appointment of the next INEC chairman.

Also read: Super Eagles boost hopes with strong Lesotho arrival

With current chairman Mahmood Yakubu’s tenure set to end, speculation is rife that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will handpick a successor favourable to his political ambitions.

The South-West, President Tinubu’s home region, has never produced a chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

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Is it finally their turn—or is something more calculated at play?

A lively exchange between two concerned citizens—laced with wit, sarcasm, and biting political insight—captured the mood:

“Who do you think Tinubu will appoint as the next INEC chair?”
“Well, the South-West is due, isn’t it?”

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But as one quickly pointed out, whether it’s called a “recommendation” or “appointment,” the president’s word is final—the National Assembly has never rejected such nominations.

And as history shows, Nigeria’s legislature rarely resists presidential directives.

The conversation soon turned towards lobbying, which many believe is already in full swing.

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Reports of a possible candidate—yet unconfirmed—have made their rounds on social media, fuelling anxiety about political manipulation and lack of transparency in the selection process.

With memories still fresh from the 2023 elections and the infamous “grab it, snatch it, and run with it” political mantra, some fear the ruling party may be preparing to consolidate power by influencing the electoral umpire.

“What does the president want to achieve in 2027?”
“A second term, of course—no more, no less.”

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And if that’s the goal, then a loyal INEC chair could prove instrumental.

But critics argue that such political engineering undermines democracy and destroys public trust in electoral institutions.

The discussion takes an unexpected philosophical turn, referencing everyone from Machiavelli and Biblical Jonathan to former President Goodluck Jonathan.

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Jonathan, often celebrated for peacefully conceding defeat in 2015, is framed here not as a hero—but as a man who handed power to forces that later “consigned Nigeria to terrorists.”

A voice asks, “Should Tinubu follow Jonathan’s example?”

“Never,” comes the reply. “He dropped both the yam and the knife and ran.”

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There’s an eerie sense of realpolitik here—where morality gives way to strategy, and power is neither conceded lightly nor held altruistically.

The final concern centres on the credibility of the 2027 elections.

Can they be truly free and fair with the current political culture? Or will they merely reflect the power plays of the elite?

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“It will be free to the extent previous elections were free.”
“It will be fair to the extent the people are fair to themselves.”

In other words, expect more of the same—unless something radically changes.

The author invokes German playwright Bertolt Brecht, referencing his satirical poem “The Solution”, in which a government, having lost the people’s trust, considers dissolving the people instead of itself.

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“Would it not be easier… for the government to dissolve the people and elect another?”

A chilling metaphor, but not far-fetched in a system where elections are routinely questioned, and power is preserved at all costs.

Final Word: Which Is Easier—Justice or Manipulation?

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Can Nigeria appoint a competent, independent INEC chairman ahead of 2027? Or will political calculations override justice, equity, and fair play?

For now, the smart money may be on the latter.

Also read: INEC Chairman Succession Faces DSS Vetting Checks

As the writer muses in closing, perhaps solving Nigeria’s electoral problem is as difficult as solving “the mathematical wonder of 2520”—a riddle best left for another day.

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Opinion

Seven prime ministers in a decade: What Nigeria can learn from Britain’s chaos

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Prime Minister

By Dr Toju Ogbe,

The resignation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, less than two years after leading the Labour Party to  a landslide electoral victory, was dramatic, yet reflected a pattern we have become familiar with in recent British politics.

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Also read: Abolish state of origin: A prerequisite for true national integration

Starmer now joins a procession of fallen prime ministers stretching back to 2016 – from David Cameron to Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.

None of these prime ministers was ousted through military intervention, popular insurrection, or a court order. Rather, each was ultimately brought down by the same political system that elevated them to electoral glory.

To the casual observer, the rapid turnover of British Prime Ministers in the last decade may appear chaotic, or even a symptom of political instability. Some argue that the British electorate has become ungovernable.

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However, beneath the apparent chaos at Westminster lies an uncomfortable truth that African democracies would do well to examine, particularly Nigerians who wonder why our democracy has delivered so little despite almost three decades of uninterrupted civilian rule.

The turbulence of British politics over the last decade, presents an important lesson on democratic accountability beyond successful elections.

Once the prime minister is deemed a liability by their own political party, the mechanics of accountability are activated. The daggers are quietly drawn and the ruthless pressure to resign begins.

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Every poll and survey on public opinion is closely monitored, local election results are taken as a referendum on leadership. Cabinet resignations begin to gain momentum and backbenchers get restless.

Once the news media smells an internal uprising, they amplify scrutiny of the prime minister, subjecting every move – speech, public appearance, political misstep etc to relentless examination.

Pressure gradually mounts until the prospect of bitter internal leadership challenge becomes impossible to resist. The Prime Minister falls.

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For every British Prime Minister, winning an election is merely the beginning of examination, not the end. Political survival lasts only for as long as the prime minister maintains the confidence of his party and the parliament.

This is the muscle of British democratic accountability; a political culture that prioritises institutional survival over individual ambition. Starmer recognised this reality in his resignation speech:

“The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace.”

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That closing sentence alone is a masterclass in British institutional democracy. The party spoke. The leader listened. The correction comes from within.

 

Nigeria presents a strikingly different political logic.

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Nigeria on the other hand, presents an interesting contrast with a different political logic and culture.

The notion that a governing party would overtly interrogate the performance of its own leader and engineer a transition to someone better equipped to maintain public confidence, is in most cases politically unthinkable in Nigeria.

Political parties in Nigeria do not coalesce  around ideological principles; rather, they operate more as electoral instruments organised around powerful individuals.

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Internal dissent is often dealt with as betrayals rather than as part of healthy democratic engagement. Godfatherism and transactional loyalties shape political succession and leadership retention.

Once elected in Nigeria, there is an inherent assumption that a governor or president has a fixed two-term lease on power.

While 10 Downing Street is preparing to welcome its seventh Prime Minister in a decade, Nigeria, in contrast, has had only two democratically elected presidents during the same period – one of whom is still serving.

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Social and economic conditions may deteriorate. Insecurity may worsen. Campaign promises may be ignored.

Public frustrations may become unbearable. Yet, incumbent governors and presidents often remain insulated from meaningful internal scrutiny and are even routinely anointed as ‘consensus’ candidate for second terms provided loyalties to godfathers, rather than the electorates are maintained.

The consequence is that loyalty, instead of performance is often rewarded at the expense of accountability.

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This is not an argument for a revolving door at Aso Rock, as frequent leadership changes, by themselves, do not guarantee good governance.

Rather it is a case for making accountability an integral aspect of party politics in Nigeria.

Although the Nigerian presidential system provides for a fixed four-year term regardless of party confidence, political parties should however, be more than instruments for election campaigns, activated to simply retain or take over power every four years.

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Electoral victory, should not be the ultimate goal, but the starting point of public service where democratic legitimacy must be continuously earned.

Equally important, political parties must develop the institutional maturity to honestly evaluate their own leaders. They must prioritise public interest and institutional credibility over loyalty to ‘Godfathers’.

The ultimate lesson from Westminster’s revolving door is clear: the true strength of a democratic system, lies not in the ability to produce leaders, but the capacity to effectively replace them, when they no longer command confidence.

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Protecting failing leaders from accountability weakens democracy and political parties must ensure that no leader is more powerful than the institution.

Also read: Madugu Targets Strong WAFCON Title Defence for Super Falcons

As political parties gear up for the 2027 general elections, the political class must decide what matters more: we can continue to reward blind loyalty and endure predictable decline, or discover the courage to demand accountability from those who seek to lead us.

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