APC risks losing 2027 election, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed warns, citing poor performance, arrogance, and failure to connect with ordinary Nigerians

Former Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has warned that the All Progressives Congress risks losing the 2027 general elections if it relies on defections, money, and political structures rather than genuine public support.

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Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Tuesday, Baba-Ahmed said the ruling party’s growing confidence, driven by the influx of politicians from opposition parties, masks deep public dissatisfaction and could prove costly at the polls.

His comments come amid a wave of high-profile defections from the Peoples Democratic Party to the APC. Governors who have switched allegiance include Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom, Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta, Douye Diri of Bayelsa, Peter Mbah of Enugu, Agbu Kefas of Taraba, and most recently, Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State.

The APC leadership in Kano State has also indicated that the defection of the state governor is imminent. In addition, several lawmakers, former governors, ministers, and party leaders have crossed over to the ruling party.

However, Baba-Ahmed cautioned that the APC Risks Losing 2027 if it assumes that political dominance automatically translates into electoral victory. He argued that such calculations are fundamentally flawed and ignore the power of voter sentiment.

According to him, the party mistakenly believes that controlling governors, legislators, and financial resources guarantees re-election. He stressed that elections are ultimately decided by the people, not by elite consensus or party machinery.

Baba-Ahmed said the APC remains largely unpopular among ordinary Nigerians, describing it as a party of officeholders and political elites who underestimate public frustration. He warned that citizens could reach a breaking point if they feel ignored or manipulated.

He noted that while political structures often revolve around money and mobilisation, they cannot substitute for credibility or public trust.

He recalled the 2015 elections, when widespread voter anger against the political class propelled Muhammadu Buhari to victory without the kind of elite consolidation the APC now enjoys.

The former presidential aide identified complacency and arrogance as the party’s two greatest dangers ahead of 2027.

He said many defecting politicians assume that changing party platforms will shield them from voter backlash, despite unresolved governance challenges in their states.

Baba-Ahmed also stressed the importance of credible elections, warning that attempts to manipulate the process could backfire. He said confidence built on the assumption of guaranteed victory could collapse if elections are free, fair, and transparent.

He added that while electoral technology is improving, no system is completely tamper-proof, making integrity and restraint essential for political stability.

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Concluding, Baba-Ahmed said the APC still has significant work to do to reconnect with Nigerians, improve perceptions of its performance, and abandon the belief that power, money, and defections alone can secure another mandate.